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System wspierający porównywanie prognoz hydrologicznych

Schedule

The first phase of the project is supposed to last one year and its objective is:

  • to establish a comprehensive technical and IT infrastructure needed to conduct the experiment.
  • to design webpage which will be an integral part of the research, as it will offer a real-time prediction updates every day enhanced by integration with GIS.
  • to set up formal rules of acquiring and exchanging hydrometeorological data resources between participating institutions.
  • to write the formal rules of accepting new participating research teams, after the project has been started, will be set up as well

The second phase of the project (1.5 year) will have a scientific character. From DP/MP/RRRP onwards the k-day discharge predictions for the selected gauges will be being submitted by the participating institutions and gathered in the computational centre. The system will automatically calculate prediction statistics, determine ensemble forecasts and publish the results on prediction accuracy on the GIS-integrated webpage.

After having attained a statistical significance of results, an investigation into optimal forecasting in hydrology will be carried out, and an emphasis will be placed on the upper and middle Odra River basin in Poland. The research will aim at classifying the scrutinised hydrologic prediction techniques on a basis of geomorphologic and meteorological parameters, which may allow us to formulate recommendations for using specific methods for a given set of environmental conditions. The system – working in nearly real-time – will detect potential errors, such as for instance lack of prediction submission by a given research group, and will automatically send reports and requests for forecast delivery according to terms and conditions. The results will be published in international scientific journals.


The third phase (0.5 year) aims to summarise the two phases of the experiment. During the third phase the predictions will be still being submitted to the computational centre, and maintaining the system after three phases will be an important issue which will depend on the obtained results.

The conference will be organised, and representatives from all scientific teams participating in the experiment will be invited. The project will be evaluated and perspectives for further research into the topic will be discussed. In particular, potentials for extending the experiment will be mentioned, with the emphasis put on practical implementations of the system to support hydrologic forecasting services.


The fourth phase of the project (2 years) will entirely depend on how successful the three initial phases are, the assessment of which will be done be the National Science Centre after completion of the 3-year experiment. The objective of the fourth phase is to continue the project and incorporate it into hydrologic forecasting services. That would be attained by providing such services with ensemble predictions and considering them in the process of determining operational forecasts and hydrologic warnings for citizens.


Last Updated on Monday, 14 May 2012 22:01